全球化经济形成机制与本质分析

本文对国民经济与全球化经济的发展趋势和推动经济全球化的主要因素作了分析,从技术因素、制度因素、国内外政治经济因素等方面探讨了经济全球化的客观必然性。文章还对发展中国家在经济全球化中挑战与机遇并存问题进行了研究。     

Quarterly reporting in a voluntary disclosure environment: Its benefits, drawbacks and determinants

We primarily examine three issues pertaining to quarterly reporting; its benefits, drawbacks and determinants. This study is conducted in a voluntary-disclosure environment with respect to reporting quarterly earnings. On the benefits side, we find that quarterly reporting is associated with higher analyst following, and on the drawbacks side we find it is associated with high price volatility. If left to its own discretion, we find that a firm with high growth prospects, large size and a technology orientation is likely to disclose earnings on a quarterly basis.     

The interaction of speculators and index investors in agricultural derivatives markets

Through the analysis of the weekly Commodity Futures Trading Commission reports on 12 US traded agricultural commodities, we revisit the heated debate on the impact of index flows on commodities prices. After introducing a novel stock‐to‐use proxy that may be used to represent inventory variations at the intra‐month level, we show that speculators, contrary to index investors, are sensitive to commodity‐specific fundamental information. Their endogeneity to commodities markets hinders the estimation of their market impact. Regarding the market impact of index flows, the endogeneity problem is alleviated in two ways: first, we restrict the scope to agricultural commodities, for which index flows are more exogenous to market prices; second, we introduce two novel instrumental variables that are computed from index flows outside the market under analysis. We find that index investment flows are offset by commercial players, not speculators. The serial correlation of index flows may explain the tendency of speculators to synchronize with index investors. There is strong evidence of an index flows' impact in those commodities markets where speculative and index positions are the most correlated. The market impact of index flows is located in periods of liquidity stress, as is the correlation between speculative and index positions. Overall, our results demonstrate an impact of index investors on some agricultural prices and suggest that the synchronicity between speculative and index positions is an important determinant of this impact.     

基于地统计分析的住宅价格空间分布格局研究——以扬州市区为例

在分析扬州市商品住房交易数据基础上,设立标准住宅,通过三种插值方法的比较,最终确定运用Kriging技术对扬州市主城区住房空间分布格局进行研究。研究表明:①从总体趋势看,研究区住宅地价总体呈略显扁平的椭圆状结构;②城市交通轴线对住宅价格导向性作用明显,突出表现为文昌路沿线价格明显高于周边地区;③商业中心对于住宅市场充分发育有明显推动作用,表现为形成了以城市商业副中心为核心的住宅区峰值集聚;④环境条件优越的城市公园周边住宅价格优势明显,表现为瘦西湖、明月湖、曲江公园等城市公园周边价格相对较高。⑤交通型主干道、河流对房价的分异作用。     

接受关联担保与审计收费——基于违规风险和过度负债的机制检验

以2007—2019年深沪A股上市公司为研究样本,实证检验上市公司接受关联担保对审计收费、审计意见的影响。研究发现,上市公司接受关联担保行为显著提高了审计收费以及被出具非标准审计意见的概率,并且担保规模越大,审计收费越高,被出具非标准审计意见的概率越大。从作用机制来看,违规风险与过度负债在关联担保影响审计收费的过程中具有中介传导作用。进一步研究表明,接受关联担保的上市公司在以后年度被财务重述的概率增加。此外,分析师跟踪具有外部监督作用,关联担保对审计收费的影响在分析师跟踪较多时不显著。     

Incentives to lead,follow, or compete: comparative national choices of international copyright

I study the desirability and incentives for countries to lead or follow in international copyright policy making by analyzing a lead-follow model of international copyright and comparing it with a competitive model. The analyses suggest that the lead-follow model is globally preferable except when the information products have short economic life in the leading country. In this exceptional case, the incentives of individual countries are compatible with global welfare as they also prefer the globally preferable competitive model. However, in the cases where the lead-follow model is globally preferable, individual countries do not always have the incentive to lead or follow. For example, a small country may prefer competition over leading or following, as competition may allow it to free-ride on the copyright protection provided by the larger country. This suggests that ‘extraordinary’ incentive is sometimes needed to induce individual countries to adopt the lead-follow model of international copyright when it is globally desirable.     

持续经营审计意见、分析师跟踪与融资约束

以2011-2016年我国A股上市公司数据为研究样本,运用现金—现金流敏感性模型,研究持续经营审计意见及分析师跟踪对融资约束的影响。研究发现：持续经营审计意见的出具加剧了上市公司面临的融资约束;分析师跟踪人数越多,上市公司面临的融资约束越小;分析师跟踪能够缓解被出具带强调事项段持续经营无保留审计意见公司的融资约束,加剧被出具其他持续经营审计意见（保留意见、无法表示意见和否定意见）公司的融资约束。     

The Effect of Multinationality on Security Analyst Underreaction

Previous research presented evidence of bias and positive serial correlation in forecast errors suggesting that analysts do not properly recognize the time–series properties of earnings when setting expectations of future earnings. A reason for the security analyst underreaction is the level of multinationality of the firm's activities. This study shows that analysts underreact to prior information more as the level of multinationality of the firm examined increases.     

Dispersion in Analyst Forecasts and the Profitability of Earnings Momentum Strategies

This paper shows that the dispersion in analysts' consensus forecasts contains incremental information to predict future stock returns. Consistent with prior research, stock prices in the German market underreact to news about future earnings and drift in the direction suggested by analysts' forecasts revisions. Even higher abnormal returns can be achieved by applying such an earnings momentum strategy to stocks with a low dispersion in analyst forecasts. These results support one of the recent behavioural models in which investors underweight new evidence and conservatively update their beliefs in the right direction, but by too little in magnitude with respect to more objective information.